Adapting to change. 2020 has been a year that we are unlikely to forget. We've all had to adapt in ways that we had no way to predict when we entered the year. Things that seemed so distant and impossible, all of a sudden became reality.
As this year draws to a close, I wanted to pull back up some thoughts that Laura Koetzle from Forrester shared with us earlier this year on the impacts the pandemic has had on our ecosystem:
Short term (next 24 months)
Customers expectations about safety and convenience shift (this won't be the last pandemic, we'll probably have to do this again)
Businesses initial migration to a more digital world will have a mix of compromised quality of user experiences - they will make mistakes, but those that are able to quickly fix them will overtake those that can't deliver great experiences
Firms will keep accelerating digital initiatives, and reinforce foundations - acceleration deployment of things that help the company be more nimble and digital, and sunset technologies that were holding them back - investing in compliance technologies
Shift to leveraging Identity as a service - with low friction for good customers, but prompting suspicious actors with multi-factor authentication - bad actors don't spend money and can do a lot of damage
High-empathy firms investing in employees will gain a creative edge - there's been a lot of investment in technology to make "work from home" possible, and now after so many months of doing this, we know there are a lot of things that can be done to improve the worker experience (ex. kids at home) - so once things get back to normal, if they don't continue this support, they may start losing employees
Consumers are conflicted with their desire for convenience co-existing with their aversion to risk - online shopping can be frustrating, but in person requires social distancing, and so decisions they make will vary day to day
Medium term (2-5 years)
Businesses will ride the wave of digital engagement - they had to make changes to support customers migration to the digital environment, but customers will eventually come back but it will be a more hybrid world (masking, making appointments, etc)
Smart companies will use this time to retire legacy systems and "technical debt" fast and ride the waves of "technology disruption" to execute on "digital transformation" initiatives
Policymakers are going to seize new possibilities to nudge companies to do the right thing, and punish companies for doing the wrong thing - after seeing the impacts that Covid has had on local resources (global warming, climate change, water, transportation, utilities, etc)
Infrastructure will need to be put in place to manage privacy programs
Identity management will be key - behavioral biometrics will be mainstream, decentralized digital identities will become a practical form for ecommerce interactions, passwordless experiences will start becoming the norm
Empowered consumers will express preferences for brands that represent their values, and vote with their wallet
Long Term (5+ years)
A disruption cycle of forced modernization - additive manufacturing, more durable or cheaper goods (ex. improving electrical vehicle battery life to last the life of the vehicle, so that it can replace fossil fuel vehicles, carbon fiber and nano-plastics have the potential to transform the way we do things in quantities of one)
Firms will keep accelerating digital initiatives and reinforce foundational capabilities
Supply chains will aim for redundancy, flexibility, and sustainability
Artificial intelligence enabled enterprise resource management systems will help firms handle uncertainty and systemic risk
Organizations will need to be able to handle risks dynamically - there may be pressure to reduce budgets and batten down, but it's important to continue to invest in capacity for adaptation to help grow and survive
Work will be redistributed with people moving out of the major cities, slowing hyper urbanization. People in smaller areas will have the same access to opportunities in places far away
Anticipatory experiences will clash with privacy backlashes (think all that data collected in the background to tailor the user experience), some people will insist on "untailored" experiences
As freedom to move around becomes a new "luxury status", consumers will pay a premium for in person experiences where there are less people, and where they have the right to protect their personal data, and will pay for the privilege of being able to control the data
Much is still uncertain as we enter 2021, but resilience is key - the ability to change when something unexpected happens. To build "slack" into the system you actually need to be less efficient than you would normally be (Just in Time delivery, makes it hard to adapt when something unexpected happens) - in times of uncertainty adaptiveness beats out efficiency.
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