The hype cycle was created by Gartner in 1995, and models the lifecycle of innovation across an industry. There are different version s of these hype cycles, and they are very specific to a sector/industry (IT, healthcare, etc). Since payments primary falls in the technology sector, this was the area of our focus.
The premise is that the adoption of innovative technologies follows a consistent, predictable pattern, and that consumers expectations of the technology change over time. There are 5 stages of hype:
The technology trigger
Peak of Inflated expectations
Trough of disillusionment
Slope of enlightenment
Plateau of productivity
Each stage is impacted by different personality types, risk profiles, innovation predilections, and views of utility.
A lot of innovation revolves around key “technology triggers”, for example, back in 1959 rocket technology was pretty cutting edge, and it triggered a lot of imaginative ideas, to the point that the Post Master General predicted that there would eventually be “rocket mail”.
Mass media is the biggest driver of the interest and ideas around technology. Think about how all the media has been driving interest in Cryptocurrencies (bitcoin) , Internet of Things (IoT), and Big Data – what is it? How does it work? How can we apply it in banking? Healthcare? Accounting? Energy and excitement builds up around the new technology and triggers the imagination to create a plethora of solutions using the technology.
Not all of these ideas are practical, or workable. People have overinflated expectations of what the technology can deliver (rocket mail?!). People start conducting experiments and building products trying to make these many ideas come to life. Many of these experiments and proposed solutions fail, resulting in mass disillusionment.
Different people have different risk levels and perspectives when looking at new technology – “Pioneer” looks at the technology and asks “what can we do with this?”, a “Bridger” might ask a question like “What part isn’t broken, that we can use?,” and a “Builder” might ask the question, “What is well understood that we can take”. Fast followers are really slow followers because they want the technology to be well understood and proven before they use it.
After two to three generations of experimentation, a viable solution is built. However, this solution needs to be “proven”. This requires a lot of consumer education – helping them understand what the technology is, and how it works, and why it benefits them. Eventually you will get adoption.
Some examples of the hype stage of current technologies:
Crypto-currencies and exchanges - mass media has generated lots of interest, and we’re in the cycle of over-inflated expectations and disillusionment. Eventually it will become proven technology
Authentication via Touch ID - Bank of America has launched the technology, it’s in the “proven” technology , others will follow slowly
Apple Pay is at the end of the lifecycle, it’s already a proven technology, it’s more about educating the masses to get adoption, and because it is a proven technology, other solutions are starting to be launched (Android Pay, Samsung Pay)
Amazon Drone – a mass media campaign to drive awareness, but the technology is currently in a phase of over-inflated expectations (Some financial institution is likely evaluating the delivery of credit cards by drone!)
MCX – is in the trough of disillusionment, they should be doing more to educate consumers on how the technology works, communicating things like zero liability, customer information protected, etc.
If you’re interested in taking some of these concepts back to your company and making them actionable, you could graph out the projects going on in your organization and see how they align to the 5 stages in hype, what part of the cycle they in. Review the graph with your teammates. Then, evaluate opportunities to suppress the cycle in the timeline, and move initiatives forward when they make sense.
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